Hi 

I’ve long been a big fan of the art of laying in the football.

Why is it so appealing? Well, if we lay in football matches in which there are more than 2 outcomes, we can create bets where we are effectively backing every outcome bar the one we have laid.

Let me explain.

In the Correct Score market, if we lay 0-0 scoreline, we are backing all other scorelines.

In the Match Odds market, if we lay the home team, we are effectively backing the away team and backing the draw.

Can you see that you are more likely to win as a layer of football matches on the betting exchanges than as a backer of one team or outcome (because that one team or outcome has to come about to the exclusion of all others in order for us to profit, trading notwithstanding).

The problem with laying 0-0 is that the market knows you are effectively backing every other scoreline, and effectively backing a goal being scored. This means that the odds are likely to be on the big side for this particular lay.

But fear not! We now have the ability to put these lay bets into an accumulator and win more often than we lose.

So it’s goodbye to traditional backing only accumulators and hello to the new world of Betfair multiple accumulators which allow us to include lay bets (what a huge advantage!)

Let me show you a Football laying Multiple.

This particular Football Multiple is an amalgamation of bets from different football markets.

I have laid West Brom halftime/fulltime meaning that I do not expect West brom to win at half time and at fulltime as well. So if, at halftime, this match was a draw or Stoke lead, then this lay bet has won already.

Next I laid Erzgebirge away at Augsburg. This means that, in the match odds market, I have 2 bets for me and one against me. I have the home team Augsburg and the draw on my side. As it happened, the match ended 2-1 to Augsburg.

My next bet was to lay Napoli to win away at AC Milan at halftime and fulltime. This was a winning lay as the match was 0-0 at halftime. Laying Napoli halftime /fulltime means that the bet wins automatically if it is a draw or AC Milan are winning at halftime.

In the same match I layed Napoli at half time. This bet came off as the match was 0-0 at halftime.

Finally I laid 0-0 in the Malaga v Almeria match which means that this bet will win as soon as a goal is scored.

If all of the outcomes I have laid do not come about, I win.

So why not experiment with halftime/fulltime lay multiples, or perhaps 0-0 lay multiples this weekend? As you can see I got a reasonable 1.8 payout here - nearly evens, and we have the great advantage that, when laying in markets of more than 2 outcomes, we have so many outcomes on our side.


Short odds equals goals

This week was a very interesting week to learn from, football wise. There were 3 teams this week, all priced at 1.17 and their scorelines were 5-0, 5-1 and 7-0.

Coincidence? Well, no I don’t think so.

Next time you see a team with such short odds in the match odds market, do not dismiss them out of hand. Instead look at the halftime/fulltime backing market (this time!!) and a goals bet (over 3.5 goals perhaps).

Better still, look to back the Correct Score. And go for an ambitious correct score like 4-0, 5-0 , maybe put a goal in for the opponents.

He who dares Rodders...

I think, and I am sure regular What Really Wins Money contributor the STATMAN agrees with me, that Stats are king.

I want to relay to you these stats from a particular football team I researched recently. Said team were Benfica. This is a team, who 2 matches ago, were on a 16 match winning streak. They were also on a 44 match run without a draw.

Monster stats. Killer stats!

Look at the results of their recent 2 matches

On the 27^th February Benfica were playing Maritimo in the league. 1-1 after 81 minutes. Now , he who dares, Rodders, would have considered the stats I mentioned above and perhaps backed Benfica in running or backed the 2-1 correct scoreline.

And hey presto, a 90^th minute Coentrau winner ensured a 2-1 Benfica win and a continuation of their winning run and make it now 45 matches without a draw.

Moving on to the 2^nd March and Benfica are at home to Sporting Lisbon in the Cup. It’s 1-1 after 34 minutes.

Will Benfica actually draw to end that winning sequence and non-drawing sequence? Enter “he who dares, Rodders” and, backs Benfica to continue their sequences. And lo and behold, Javi Garcia comes up with a 90^th minute winner.

I wanted to relay these 2 results to you because they were quite unbelievable and, if you dream about the big winners, then speculate on super strong statistics like these when they come about.

Statman bonus

There’ll be a bonus from the Statman next weekend in the eletter as he focuses on how we can ensure a better return from the bookmakers and the betting exchanges. As with everything the Statman does, no stone is left unturned and I am sure you will find the article appealing.

And there goes Schumacher...

I have been in touch with a petrol head who lives and breathes Formula One, and all being well, I will be introducing him to you in next week’s eletter. He loves Formula One, watches all of the qualifying, reads the F1 mag, and, importantly, usually nails it when it comes to his tips on F1. So I look forward to welcoming him to the ranks. And no, it is not Andy Priaulx who lives in Guernsey, or Jenson Button , who also lives in Guernsey!

That’s not crickeet is that...

I cannot leave without congratulating Ireland on their thrashing of England in the World Cup Cricket. Layers of England at 1.01 would have been in clover. I am afraid I was not involved in this match (he says wiping a tear from the eye at the kind of colossal gains that laying a 1.01 shot would bring).

It got me thinking though, returning to football. Why not lay teams in play who are 2-0 or 3-0 up at halftime? We have seen it time and again that a comeback can occur. Something to think about in the right matches. The Premiership has shown this tactic to be super successful. Laying at such short odds with a seemingly unassailable lead means your liability is ultra low and profits potentially great!

These are what I like to call ‘enhanced bets’ and there are some cracking opportunities to profit from these every week, especially in the football. Speaking of which, if you haven’t already had a chance to take a look ‘In Play Profit Generator’ you can do so here:

In Play Profit Generator

It arms you with everything you need to profit from the ‘in play’ football markets in Betfair. There’s nothing quite like nabbing a ‘Green Screen’ and knowing that you’ve banked another guaranteed profit after just a few minutes of trading!

Right, that’s it from me today. I’m off now to catch a cold. It’s more than England could catch against Ireland!

Have a great weekend

Clive Keeling