Here comes Cheltenham and there goes Schumacher...
Hi
The racing fraternity pay their respects to me by holding a 4 day Festival of Jumps Racing at Cheltenham (I keep telling them “you shouldn’t have, I’d have been happy with a box of Ferrero Rocher” but they keep insisting).
Yes, this Cheltenham Festival is a mighty spectacle and readers of the What Really Wins Money newsletter will already be fully armed with stats and each way strategies, care of the Statman (the film “the man with 2 brains” was actually based on him - fact!) and Andrew David who insists that we will profit if we take an each way approach to this year’s Festival. His argument in the newsletter was quite compelling.
For those of you who missed out, I have tried to take a sneaky peak at the cards that the guys at BetterTipster are holding close to their chest this season, and I will share with you 2 of their previews along with their most recent update from gallop whispers and, erm, other whispers with stables and trainers (there’s a lot of whispering going on!). Over to the guys:
”The best week of the racing calendar is on the horizon and whilst still a month away we are already busy gathering information for our members. This includes visiting Cheltenham preview nights; having the ability to dine with the trainers and jockeys is certainly the most effective way to avoid the hype and get only the best information.
Evidence of this is visible in the free message we sent out to What Really Wins members from last year. To remind you:
Peddlers Cross 3pts E/W @ 9/1. WON
Imperial Commander 2pts E/W @ 10/1. WON
Khyber Kim 3pts E/W @ 9/1. 2nd
Somersby 3pts E/W @ 7/1 2nd
Kilty Storm 1pt E/W @ 16/1 2nd
Big Bucks 8pts Win @ 8/13 WON
Bensalem 2pts E/W @ 7/1 Fell two out cantering
Rite Of Passage Lay @ 7/2 Maximum lay advised.
Our only losing bet was on Bensalem who was the winner up until the second last. As with 2009, 2010 was a very profitable Cheltenham.
We’ve completed the below review for the Cheltenham festival, but be aware that advice have not yet been given to members as more information is required to determine the strength of the selection.
Ryanair Chase 2:40 Thursday
Not one of the best races this year, in fact, one of the worst renewals I can remember for many years. The race looks to be full of deadwood with the majority of horses without a chance of success and only in the race to utilize a day out. However, one horse that shows signs of strong potential is from a trainer that needs no introduction. Ferdy Murphy seems to always have a winner at the festival and we fully expect this horse will be one of the gambles of the meeting.
The horse we are interested in is Kalahari King, at time of writing he is best priced at 10/1 with Boylesports and available at a general price of 9/1.
Make no mistake; this is a top class horse who has been aiming for this race all year and, so far, we have not been able to find any negatives to suggest otherwise. On first glance you may think that the form figures of the horse are poor but horses, like humans, horses lose some of their momentum with age. This is the case with Kalahari King who now needs a trip of at least two miles & five because the shorter trip of two miles is now a bit sharp for him.
On his last time out the horse made eye-catching progress after nearly being taken out early on in the race. Kalahari King would have been a clear third behind Master Minded & Somersby at Ascot. The horse did finish 4th but this was still an impressive finish considering what happened at the 9th fence. When approaching the fateful 9th fence the rider less Petit Robin ran straight across Kalahari King, forcing him across the width of the track and losing a lot of ground in the process. All winning chance was lost, but the horse stayed on very well; finishing fast to snatch 4th.
Looking slightly further into his past form it’s hard to forget that Kalahari Kingwas second in the Arkle in 2009 & 3rd in the Queen mother in 2010 so there is without doubt the potential for greater success this year. This year’s Ryanair Chase is nothing like the standard of his previous Cheltenham races he should go very close and will really take the beating.
RSA Chase Wednesday 2:40
Trends
10 of the last 10 had won at least 1 chase.
10 of the last 10 had won a chase over at least 21f.
33 of the last 36 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
27 of the last 30 placed horses had finished in the first three last time out.
28 of the last 30 placed horse were aged 6, 7 or 8.
27 of the last 30 placed horses had finished in the first three in all completed starts that season.
Time for Rupert is likely to be many peoples 2011 Festival Banker, & rightly so; the horse ticks all the boxes, has the best form in the race and will surely take all the beating. At time of writing, Time for Rupert is best priced at 5/2.
Unlike the Ryanair, this year’s RSA looks a good renewal with plenty of strength in depth with the likes of Wymott, Jessies Dream & Wishful Thinking all looking very good horses. Ante post betting in this race is quite risky as some of the runners may go for the new Golden Miller race, formally known as the Jewson. We would suggest holding fire until the ‘none runner no bet’ markets open.
One horse that seems to be totally forgotten is The Giant Bolster, priced 25/1. If this horse was trained by the likes Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls or any other famous trainer he would be much shorter. Ex-jockey David Bridgewater is the man in charge of this one.
The Giant Bolster has plenty of top hurdle form, finishing 6th in last year’s Neptune despite losing near 15 lengths at the start. A new chasing career beckoned this season with the horse already winning two races, one at Cheltenham. Second time out this year the horse ran in the same race as Time For Rupert & Hells Bay, a small group had broken away including our selection but he unfortunately fell at the 12th when still in contention.
The horse ran once more since his fall at Cheltenham over a trip of two miles & five, giving near 9lb to every rival in the field. Things very nearly did not go to plan as he was almost brought down at the first by a faller, losing quite a few lengths in the process. It took a while for the jockey to get The Giant Bolster back in a rhythm but once he did, he really picked up and jumped into the lead at the last winning well and landing BetterTipster members a good at 7/1 bet.
We caught up with David Bridewater before and after the race who informed us that he will come into his own over three miles and also said this horse will be a Gold Cup & King George horse in the years to come. From this it’s quite clear to see how highly he is regarded. It maybe that this year’s Cheltenham is one year too early, but with the three mile trip sure to suit in the RSA and the price of 25/1 it certainly represents good E/W value at the moment. The horse is also entered in the new Golden Miller, but the trainer did say he prefers the RSA. I would not put you off throwing a few quid at this horse in whatever race he runs in at the Cheltenham Festival.”
And for some of the latest Cheltenham info from bettertipster:
”Khyber Kim will be ridden for a place only in the Champion Hurdle. The horse is working really well & Paddy thinks the horse has a fair each way shout.
Imperial Commander at the moment is only 85% compared to this time last year. If the Gold Cup was two weeks ago Imperial Commander would have been in trouble. The horse is improving each day and Paddy has schooled him this morning. General thoughts are the Gold Cup is not as good as last year and Paddy thinks a 90% Imperial Commander would win it.
Quevega is proving very difficult at the moment. She went to Leopardstown a couple of days ago for her last piece of work but would not come out of the saddling stable. Her home work has been good but backing a moody 11-10 shot is not the way forward.
A P McCoy will ride either Spirit Son or Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme Novice. Barry Geraghty has first choice, A P will be on the other for Nicky Henderson.
Binocular did an amazing piece of work yesterday with A P on top. Forget his last run when just winning at Sandown. The money was down for him to win under 6 lengths, big money !!!!
Somersby is only possibly being switched to the Ryanair because AP would be able to ride, Henrietta Knight does not want Haddon Frost riding the horse at Cheltenham. Choc Thornton has been asked if he can ride in the Champion Chase.”
So that’s the latest gossip to add to your armoury for the week to come.
The bettertipster guys were unbelievable at last year’s Festival and if they can follow suit, then they are offering a Cheltenham Special to What Really Wins eletter readers for £10 here.
And there goes Schumacher...
Yes the Formula One season is upon us and I have procured the services of an F1 Fanatic who lives and breathes the sport, to give you his lowdown on the season to come and then, in each eletter prior to a race, his take on the next race.
He hasn’t got a catchy name, I was thinking of F Juan or simply the F1 Tipster, but I decided on the Motor Man. After all, the Statman deals with stats, so the MotorMan can deal with Motorsport.
So here’s the MotorMan’s warm up article for the new season to come:
”The 2010 formula one Championship was one of the closely contested of the sports history, and 2011 looks as though it could easily surpass that.
The first race of the season, Bahrain, has been postponed due to the turmoil in the Middle East, meaning that the first race of the season is to be held at Albert’s Park, in Melbourne, which, in secret, every driver and team are happy about.
As Mark Webber said “it’s good to see the season starting where it should be”, mind you he is an Aussie and a home advantage for the first race, in a potential race winning car isn’t a bad thing.
The 2011 season looks like it will throw up quite a few surprises. As well as the usual suspects (Ferrari, Maclaren, Mercedes and Red Bull) a few mid field teams have shown great pace in the pre season testing, amongst them the Toro Rosa, as Hamilton said “that Toro Rosa looks like it can blow us all away”.
The first race is opening in Melbourne and whilst the pre season testing has shown the speed of some cars, and lack of speed for other cars, we cannot take this at face value. The Maclaren seems to be off the pace whilst the Toro Rosa seems to be on the pace and the Mercedes seems off the pace whilst the Lotus seems on the pace. The Pre Season testing is usually a lot of “smoke and Mirrors”.
From what I have seen, the stand outs of the 2011 season are still going to be Alonso, Vettel, Webber, Hamilton and Button but I wouldn’t count out Rosberg for winning a race or two or Heidfeld to win at least one race for Renault Lotus (if Kubica had not injured himself pre season I think he would have been in for a shout of the title). The back marker Group Lotus (this is where it gets confusing, we have Renault Lotus, who are a front running team, and Group lotus who are a back marker team) will progress up the field and be in the mid field fighting with Toro Rosa and Sauber for points on a consistent basis, I also believe that Toro Rosa may well advance up the ranks on a couple of races and be fighting further up the field with Williams and perhaps Mercedes for points. The Williams will probably finish 6th in the championship leaving the first four places to be decided between Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Maclaren and Renault.
This season promises to be one of the best in the sports history and I would say we would be looking at 6 drivers in with a chance of the title towards the end of the season. Expect Maclaren to start off slowly but to gather momentum as the season progress and for Red Bull to show their dominance from the Off. This is also the first season in the sports history where we have 5 world champions lining up on the grid, all vying for their next title.
As for the Drivers, Webber has a lot to prove this year and will be fighting tooth and nail for wins. Vettel will be defending his championship and Alonso will be desperate to prove Ferrari’s investment was worth while and secure his 3rd Drivers Title. Hamilton and Button will be stealing wins from the other Drivers whilst the likes of Rosberg and Heidfeld chase their maiden wins, in cars that should be capable of providing it. As always, Michael Schumacher is still in the field although I don’t think he will be a threat; that will come from his teammate, Rosberg.
The opening race will show us what to expect from the teams and also show us the ultimate pace that the teams have. I would like to put Mark Webber down for the win, followed by Vettel in 2nd ( a Red bull one, two) with Alonso 3rd but I think we will be looking at a Vettel / Webber Red Bull one, two. I will be writing a more protracted Pre Race analysis just before the season opener on the 27th March 2011 but one thing I can say with certainty now is that this season will go down in History as one of the closest F1 championships ever. It’s going to be a rollercoaster ride!”
Thanks to the MotorMan there.
Now what does all this mean from a betting perspective?
Again, my personal focus will be on the Betfair markets that allow for trading. Remember a few weeks ago I did my tournament trading on the 6 nations. Well this long F1 season is surely ideally suited to tournament trading, particularly if, as the MotorMan asserts, this is likely to be tighter than my brother buying a round.
Why not lay the shortest priced driver (currently Sebastien Vettel at 3.75)?
Back Webber at odds of 11 in the Drivers Championship perhaps in anticipation of a good showing in Australia? These odds should shorten to allow some kind of a trade.
These are my knee jerk reactions but we can get a clearer picture in the MotorMan’s in-depth look at Melbourne.
All in all it should be an exciting year. I must admit I don’t pay particular attention to the F1 racing, but if there’s money in them their Hills (both Graham and Damon) then I shall investigate for you!
The Melbourne Grand Prix will have its very own markets and I would advocate Betfair again (backing, laying, trading - you know the drill by now!) and will look at these markets in conjunction with the Motor Man soon.
Statman article to come next week...
As the mighty Ronnie Corbet might have said if he was a betting eletter writer “and in a packed eletter, erm, next week” the Statman will devote some time to investigating how you can get a better return from your betting.
It may come as an attachment next week, because when the Statman does his Statman thang, he leaves no stat unturned!
In the meantime, have a great weekend and a great Cheltenham Festival, and remember the each way value alternatives I’ve been going on about in the last few eletters!
Until then
Clive