Hi
The Motor Man is back for Melbourne.
As a petrol head, he loves all things Petrol and OIL, so much so
that I am surprised the USA hasn’t invaded his house yet.
So here’s his initial report.
”Pirelli have joined F1 as the tyre supplier for the first time in
18 years. With the Bridgestone tyres, degradation was minimal and so only one
pit stop was called for per race.
The Pirelli tyre has been designed to degrade highly, forcing cars
to pit three or four times a race and so bringing back pit crew strategy.
The new adjustable rear wing can only be operated when a car is
within one second of the car in front. The wing can then be opened by the
driver, allowing an advantage of speed to assist in overtaking the car in
front.
We also have KERS which acts as an added turbo boost, giving extra
power from time to time, at the driver’s request. All of which make for an
exciting season.
So, down to the race. Without seeing the Friday Practice times, I
still only have the times from the pre season practices to work off.
McLaren are sadly not going to be up at the front for the first
few races. I would expect Button and Hamilton to be in the mid field area.
Malaren have removed their new exhaust system hoping that this will give them
at least one second extra, meaning that they too see themselves well off the
pace.
NOTE - McLaren are opposable in all areas? Check the Betfair
markets which include McLaren and its drivers.
For this first race, I believe that we will see Red Bull, Ferrari
and possibly Renault up front but we will all have a better idea after free
practice tomorrow. Here are my thoughts...
Pole: Current World Champion, Vettel, for Pole on Saturday as he
has the car and the pace and is normally 1 tenth faster than team mate, Webber.
Relevant Betfair Markets
QUAL/WINNER DOUBLE - VETTEL/VETTEL at 3.45 (an illiquid betting
market at time of writing)
NOTE - this market is in running. Backing Vettel in this market
means that if he takes Pole Position you can trade as the odds will reduce.
OVERALL QUAL WINNER - VETTEL - 2.3
Another ‘in play’ market, so trading preferred - you will even be
in a tradable position if Vettel leads at a key stage without the qualifying
actually ending.
For the Race I would strongly recommend having Alonso and Webber
on the podium and Red Bull as the Winning Constructor. The Fastest lap will go
down to Vettel and he will also take the race win.
Relevant Betfair Markets
AUSTRALIAN GP - WINNER VETTEL - 3.15 on Betfair
PODIUM FINISH - VETTEL - 1.55 - ALONSO - 1.62 (illiquid) - WEBBER
- 1.94 (illiquid market)
WINNING CONSTRUCTOR (on Betfair as WINNING CAR)
Red Bull - 1.93 - again an illiquid betting market which will
surely become more liquid nearer the race time.
A Weekend Of Trading?
F1 is tradable and I would like to point you in the direction of a
great blog I found which is pertinent for F1 and trading on Betfair. It’s a
year old but still valid for all you Betfairians.
Technical Analysis at the Formula 1
As the blog writer tells us, as this is a 3 day event, there are plenty
of opportunity to trade price movements in reaction to driver performance in
the pre qualifying and qualifying (like the Tournament trading I mentioned for
the 6 nations which proved very profitable thanks largely to the Irish ending
England’s Grand Slam hopes).
But he does warn against lack of liquidity. And he likes technical
analysis. Me? I prefer my research (or fundamental analysis), as you will read.
As well as F1, trading on Betfair can be applied many sports,
including cricket (as this Current World Cup draws to a close), Tennis (a sport
of 2 results only so well worth investigating), horse racing, and of course
football.
And it is the latter that I like to focus quite simply because I
love the game. What better way is there to make money than from something you
love?
Once you learn the basics of trading - research, strategy, entry
and exit, then you can easily apply it to all sports on Betfair.
With football, research is the key to your success, as followers
of my in play blog (free with my manual) can attest. Do quality research and
you will make quality decisions!
By the way, if you haven’t seen this yet you can take a look here.
In Play Profit Generator
Brighton, for example, are playing tomorrow and here is the
research I shared with readers for their last match against Notts County.
745pm - Brighton v Notts Co - 1.6 home - in play - league one
match
1st v 17th
HEAD TO HEADS - from 2001 to 2004 so irrelevant for current season
and as a gauge for tonight’s match.
BRIGHTON - RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWWWWWW - can’t really get better
than that. Unbeaten at home this season with 13 wins and 4 draws.
BRIGHTON - RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWLWWWWW - great recent form.The
2 aberrations were away from home.
BRIGHTON - GOAL TRENDS - 6 of the last 7 matches were over 2.5
goals. but at home recently, Brighton have scored 5,3,2,4,4,4,2 and these
scorelines are not limited to bottom half sides.
4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches hint at a Brighton side who
should win if scoring.
Brighton have scored in all of their last 5 matches and in 8 of
their last 9 matches. the only times they do not score, they drop points.
2.47 average scored per home match. Have scored in all home
matches. Only 59% over 2.5 goals at home.
Have conceded only 9 goals in the first half this season.
40 goals scored in the 2nd half, so fear not if 0-0 in
the first half.
Brighton have only failed to score 2 or more 3 times at home this
season.
STREAKS - 7 without a draw at home, 17 matches without defeat at
home.
7 match home winning streak. 9 matches in total without a draw.
3 matches in total without conceding.
NOTTS COUNTY RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDDDLWL - only 1 win in the
matches they have played away to top 15 and that was a 2-3 win at Peterborough
but its relevance is suspect as it was back in September 2010.
NOTTS COUNTY - recent form overall - LDDLWWDLLWLL - 4 losses in
last 5 really stands out here.
Note that the last 4 matches have all been 1-0 scorelines.Against
3rd, 16th, 9th and 22nd in the
league.
Is this a new defensive Notts County we see before us? Or just a
coincidence. Difficult to gauge as the teams are all spread through the league.
NOTTS COUNTY - goal trends - the last 13 matches have been under
2.5 goals which is in market contrast to Brighton’s goalscoring at home.
Only 43% over 2.5 goals away.
Notts county have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches,
the exception a 1-0 win and that was a penalty.
Notts County have only kept a clean sheet in one of their last 6
matches, and that was that 1-0 win again.
STREAKS - 3 away without a draw, 5 in total.
Last 4 matches 1-0’s.
We have a Brighton side who have only failed to score 2 or more in
3 of their 17 home matches against a Notts County side whose only recent goal
was a penalty and whose last 13 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 1-0, 2-0
scorelines appeal for the more speculative here and it would seem that if
Brighton score, they win? Perhaps back Brighton and the 0-0 as insurance.
The quality of the research pointed to a 1-0 or 2-0 correct score
bet, and the final result?
Brighton 1, Notts County 0.
Coincidence? I like to think not. And with the correct score
markets “in play” an ideal trade.
Indeed I advocate 3 main markets to trade, match odds, goals and
correct score. The latter will produce the bigger profits from trading, as well
as traditional betting, as it is more difficult to predict.
The research above is basic research. If you want to really get
serious, then look at team news, half times, and so on. I go into greater
detail with readers of the manual (details are here).
It’s looking like a
trader’s paradise this weekend
The weekend sees Brighton play again, and I would advocate
you go tosoccerstats to look at Brighton and see what STANDOUT
STATS you can come up with.
The weekend also sees a lot of other tips and tricks which can be
put into effect.
For instance, did you know that short odds usually equate to
goals?
So, in the matches tomorrow featuring Andorra v Slovakia (where
Slovakia are 1.09 - i.e. place £100 to win £9) do not dismiss this match simply
because of the short odds, instead look at the goals market, the halftime
market in order to enhance returns (these markets are in play).
Similarly, Germany are playing Kazakhstan and it would seem Borat,
and his brother Bilo are playing for the Kazaks as Germany are 1.04. Again,
immediately look towards goals to increase returns and in this case I would be
adventurous and back over 4.5 or over 5.5 goals with an eye to trading.
I would also venture towards a 4-0, 5-0 or higher scoreline for
the Germans as short odds usually indicate a clean sheet too in most cases.
This is a basic overview of course, we need to question motivation
(is this a friendly? Friendlies mean, quite simply no trade!) Internationals
are difficult to evaluate.
Brighton, by contrast, has form with the same side playing week in
and week out. International teams quite naturally change as players are
exchanged or grow too old. Team news will be vital too.
So, what of Wales v England then? How would a trader approach this
match? This is a qualifying match so will be taken seriously. England are
strong market leaders at 1.42.
Your first step tomorrow to evaluate this match is to await team
news. This will be important. For instance if Bale and Bellamy are playing for
Wales and England have relatively inexperienced right and left backs, then
there is an area of vulnerability.
As already said, these internationals are difficult as they are
generally one off matches but try to do some research. I use websites like soccerstats but
it does not cover internationals. So try soccerway and
you’ll learn that Bale is out! A huge boost for England. You’ll also learn that
the last head to head was 2005 so we cannot get any real idea of whether the
current Welsh set up can be a bogey side for England. But we can see recent
form at soccerway and
at futbol24.
I also recommend using OPO (other people’s opinions) and there are many
websites offering opinions.
I see 2 forms of trading, reactive and opinion based. Opinion
based trading comes from research, but tomorrow I would advocate reactive
trading as we need to gauge, with our eyes, any potential dominance from
England, and the relative vulnerabilities of the defences (which might signal
goals) while the match is actually in play, and make our trading decisions
based on what we see.
Alas space is at a premium in the eletters, but I wanted to give
you a flavour of research and its application to enhance strike rate for
trading. Indeed if you do research in all your betting areas to the highest
quality you can, then your strike rate will increase because you are, quite
naturally, making better betting decisions.
If you really want to crack the in play football trading on
Betfair I highly recommend taking a look at this. You get a full 6 weeks to try
it out.
In Play Profit Generator
Right, that’s it for today!
I hope you get some benefit from the Motor Man this weekend. I am
sure that as the year progresses, and as the Motor Man familiarises himself
with Betfair (he is not really a bettor) these pre race messages can get better
and better!
Have a great weekend. It looks like a trader’s paradise!
Clive
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